Reliability to soft errors is a significant design challenge in modern microprocessors owing to an exponential increase in the number of transistors on chip and the reduction in operating voltages with each process generation. Architectural Vulnerability Factor (AVF) modeling using microarchitectural simulators enables architects to make informed performance, power, and reliability tradeoffs. However, such simulators are time-consuming and do not reveal the microarchitectural mechanisms that influence AVF. In this article, we present an accurate first-order mechanistic analytical model to compute AVF, developed using the first principles of an out-of-order superscalar execution. This model provides insight into the fundamental interactions between the workload and microarchitecture that together influence AVF. We use the model to perform design space exploration, parametric sweeps, and workload characterization for AVF.